Which of our 50 states have actually sent people to the White House? Wikipedia lists and maps present birthplace and primary state affiliations of former presidents. Can we make any quick predictions based on the birthplaces (not where raised) and primary state affiliations of the current leading candidates? Sure, why not?
The best birthplace states are Virginia and Ohio followed by Massachusetts and New York. Tiny Vermont boasts two native-born presidents: Chester A. Arthur and Calvin Coolidge although both were affiliated with different neighboring states (New York and Massachusetts) and were Vice-Presidents first. Surprise (!) presidents, so to speak. (Texas and North Carolina also have two presidents each.)
Primary affiliations are somewhat different. Let’s assign some numbers now.
Trump has never held an elected office and he’s financing his own campaign. But he’s affiliated with the New York primary this year so he gets 6 points and 4 points for birthplace (like Van Buren, Fillmore, Roosevelt and Roosevelt).
Sanders also gets 4 points for being born in New York and 2 points for being affiliated with Vermont for 6 points.
Hillary Clinton was born in Chicago, Illinois. That gives her 1 point (Reagan). She moved to New York and was a U.S. senator, so add 6 points.
Marco Rubio was born in Florida so zero points; a U. S. Senator for Florida gives him zero points.
New York City consists of five boroughs, (Brooklyn, Manhattan, Queens, Staten Island, and the Bronx) and is also the birthplace of Theodore Roosevelt (Manhattan). Sanders was born in Brooklyn and Trump in Queens. Even though NYC is a mega city, I think Sanders and Trump should get an extra point for sharing a birth city with Roosevelt.
Keeping it very simple, Trump gets 8 points. Sanders gets 7 points. Clinton gets 7 points. Cruz gets 3 points–if he’s legal. Rubio gets zero points.
So if historical patterns prevail, right now, based on birthplaces and primary affiliations alone, either Trump or Sanders, two natives of New York City, and independents, may face off after all the primaries are over and done. Or Trump could tackle the Clinton family.
Pundits R US? Nah. Anything can happen. But history is interesting.