MORE VA MATH

While driving to a job site to check on my WIFE’s Construction Co.  that I USED to own, a horrible thought of collusion came to me. As most who know me would agree, I think in numbers- like the Count on Sesame Street. Examine this enigma.

 The VA has a budget. It is newly projected each year and is currently about $26 Billion this annum. That covers a lot of ground. The DVA is two major entities- The ROs and VAMCs. If you work for them, it’s the VBA and the VHA. I can see how budget poohbahs arrive at a close estimate for Veterans’ health care. They have X number of VAMCs and personnel to finance. They can anticipate the numbers of Veterans coming into the system from the military in advance. That is shared knowledge and easy to program for. What would seem to me to be random, or should be, is the ensuing number granted. Who can predict that? Read on and find out.

Statistically and historically, we know that Veterans only win at the RO level approximately 15% of the time.  Additionally, only 14% appeal their denial. Whether it’s due to apathy or genuine fraud does not interest us. The quantity does. In order to plan for a budget, a number has to be arrived at for compensation costs. This requires a good faith estimate on the cost of same. To achieve this, a budget guru would need to input the fact that 85% of claims were going to be denied each and every year. And, of the 14% appealed, approximately 70% were going to be denied. But, of the 70% thus appealed from the RO and denied, a miniscule number wend their way higher. They win 70% of the time or are vacated and remanded consistent with the Court’s instructions. That last figure is telling. Again, it doesn’t have bearing on our financial examination today.

From this foray, we can surmise that the VA has, in essence,     pre-denied a fixed number based on what? Finances. Now we get to “construe”. May we construe that only the most egregious cases of service-connected injury/disease are granted? Does this leave the hearing-impaired Vet with hemorrhoids a 0% popsicle? If only a select 15% are invited into the party, are they the first 15% to apply each year or are they on VA’s twitter? Do Vets represented by lawyers have a higher rate of success than those by VSOs?  I can only answer the last and it is a resounding “Yes”.

If  VA’s financial prognostications only include the universe of X number of new, service-connected Veterans each year, they can arrive at a budget figure that fits the number Congress is asked to foot. Absent that number, you would be shooting in the dark. Knowing full well that VA only intends to reward X number of souls and deny Y more, their poohbahs can usually be right in the ballpark. Amazing prognosticators, what?

But. There’s always a but. What of the Vet that shows up 20 years later and says VA made a mistake to the accrued tune of $200 K or so? Shoot. Multiply that by 3000 Vets. With VA’s track record of misconstruing 50% of what they take in, that’s probably a conservative number anyway. In order to accommodate these Vets, others suffer both in timely decisions and (gasp) ungranted decisions. VA can neither go over budget with extraordinary awards again and again nor can they deny genuinely injured Vets. Or can they?

With a fixed budget, VA is constrained from being too lax in decisions. Their largesse is severely limited. All those boys in D.C. drink expensive Russian vodka and parking isn’t cheap either. Why, you wouldn’t want the Judges running around in Kias and Corollas, would you? A good 4WD GMC Yukon isn’t cheap and appearances are everything in D.C. So, there’s no fudge room in that part of the budget. Likewise the VHA. This 18-guys-a-day suicide phenomenon is going to need some serious PR money soon to combat the perception that it’s ignored. Where else to scalp that money from? Why, the VBA.

So, at first glance, the only flexible part of their budget has to be the compensation pool.  It’s being manipulated artificially now, so a little more claims gerrymandering isn’t going to arouse attention. The VA got caught promulgating rules for extraordinary awards in 2008. They wanted to “trim and prune”the payouts a bit before offering them to the Vet in hopes he had recently arrived via the good ship HMS Mayflower.  All claims over $25 K had to go back to D.C. for a time/date stamp. The Court decided that was not according to Hoyle and forbad the process. I suspect they still do it- albeit via secure voice network now so as to leave no fingerprints.

In summary, something stinks (besides me). I have an excuse called Short Bowel Syndrome. Veterans are obviously getting a special brand of justice and it stinks. If your claim is denied today and takes 3-4 years to appeal, then they have effectively moved their budget projections for your eventual success (again, based on statistical models) to 2013-2014. That’s not off-budget. That’s future budget. Much the way we use a credit card to buy something now and pay later, the VA is using a denial to buy time until they absolutely have to pay. In the interim they hope you will a) die; b) go away; or c) settle for chump change. Yes, as odd as it seems, the VA has created a whole new “M2” money supply. They have their 2011 budget as expressed in M1$-that which they were allotted by Congress – as well as their now off-line future M2 claims dollars (unawarded as yet). You have to hand it to them. That is very innovative, cutting edge bookkeeping. It brings back memories of Wimpy petitioning Popeye with his signature “I would gladly pay you next Tuesday for a hamburger today”. What has me stymied is that they put Bernie Madoff in prison for the same thing. One of these days they’ll have to pay the piper. That timeworn excuse of “We just gotta hire more guys. We’re inundated here” won’t work forever. VA hired 18,00 new claims guys last year, then  moon walked and said “Yeah, but now we gotta train them”.  What’s next? Hall passes at the RO for FNGs to keep them at their desks working?